Examining Plan to Help Iranian People Oppose Regime
White House Examining Plan to Help Iranian People Oppose Regime
White paper pushes bid to help Iranians topple
already weak hardline regime
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Donald Trump John BoltonGetty Images
BY: Adam Kredo
May 10, 2018 3:35 pm
The Trump administration is examining a new plan to
help Iranians fighting the hardline regime in Iran following America's exit
from the landmark nuclear deal and reimposition of harsh economic sanctions
that could topple a regime already beset by protests and a crashing economy,
according to a copy of the plan obtained by the Washington Free Beacon.
The three-page white paper being circulated among
National Security Council officials in the White House offers a strategy by
which the Trump administration can actively work to assist an already
aggravated Iranian public topple the hardline ruling regime through a
democratization strategy that focuses on driving a deeper wedge between the
Iranian people and the ruling regime.
The plan, authored by the Security Studies Group, or
SSG, a national security think-tank that has close ties to senior White House
national security officials, including National Security Adviser John Bolton,
seeks to reshape longstanding American foreign policy toward Iran by
emphasizing an explicit policy of regime change, something the Obama
administration opposed when popular protests gripped Iran in 2009.
The regime change plan seeks to fundamentally shift
U.S. policy towards Iran and has found a receptive audience in the Trump
administration, which has been moving in this direction since Bolton—a longtime
and vocal supporter of regime change—entered the White House.
It de-emphasizes U.S military intervention, instead
focusing on a series of moves to embolden an Iranian population that has
increasingly grown angry at the ruling regime for its heavy investments in
military adventurism across the region.
"The ordinary people of Iran are suffering
under economic stagnation, while the regime ships its wealth abroad to fight
its expansionist wars and to pad the bank accounts of the Mullahs and the IRGC
command," SSG writes in the paper. "This has provoked noteworthy
protests across the country in recent months."
Jim Hanson, SSG's president, told the Free Beacon
that the Trump administration has no appetite for U.S. military intervention in
Iran, but is very focused on efforts to rid Iran of its hardline ruling regime.
"The Trump administration has no desire to roll
tanks in an effort to directly topple the Iranian regime," Hanson said.
"But they would be much happier dealing with a post-Mullah government.
That is the most likely path to a nuclear weapons-free and less dangerous
Iran."
An NSC official declined to comment directly on the
report, but confirmed the administration is consistently working to
"change the Iranian regime's behavior."
"Our stated policy is to change the Iranian
regime’s behavior of continuous destabilizing regional acts and support of
terrorism," the official said, adding that the White House reviews
multiple plans and proposals from organizations. "The National Security
Council is in receipt of reams of policy papers and reports, some are read with
interest, others are not. Receipt of a policy paper in no way means that we are
going to adopt the position of that paper."
One source close to the White House who has
previewed the plan told the Free Beacon that the nuclear deal, also known as
the JCPOA, solidified the Iranian regime's grip on power and intentionally
prevented the United States from fomenting regime change
"The JCPOA purposefully destroyed the carefully
created global consensus against the Islamic Republic," said the source,
who would only speak on background about the sensitive issue. "Prior to
that, everyone understood the dangers of playing footsie with the world's
largest state sponsor of terrorism. It's now Trump, Bolton, and [Mike] Pompeo's
job to put this consensus back in place."
Bolton is said to be acutely aware of the danger the
Iranian regime poses to the region, the source said.
"John is someone who understands the danger of
Iran viscerally, and knows that you're never going to fundamentally change its
behavior—and the threats against Israel and the Saudis especially—until that
revolutionary regime is gone," the source said, adding that
"nothing's off the table right now if Israel is attacked."
A second source close to the White House and
familiar with the thinking on this issue told the Free Beacon the
administration recognizes the chief impediment to the region is Iran's
tyrannical regime.
"The problem is not the Iran nuclear deal it's
the Iranian regime," said the source, who would only speak on background.
"Team Bolton has spent years creating Plans B, C, and D for dealing with
that problem. President Trump hired him knowing all of that. The administration
will now start aggressively moving to deal with the root cause of chaos and
violence in the region in a clear-eyed way."
Regional sources who have spoken to SSG "tell
us that Iranian social media is more outraged about internal oppression, such
as the recent restrictions on Telegram, than about supporting or opposing the
nuclear program. Iranian regime oppression of its ethnic and religious
minorities has created the conditions for an effective campaign designed to
splinter the Iranian state into component parts," the group states.
"More than one third of Iran's population is
minority groups, many of whom already seek independence," the paper
explains. "U.S. support for these independence movements, both overt and
covert, could force the regime to focus attention on them and limit its ability
to conduct other malign activities."
American policy towards Iran has failed to
explicitly support Iranian opponents of the regime who are thirsty for a
change.
"U.S. policy toward Iran currently does not
publicly articulate two components vital to success: That a new birth of
liberty based in self-determination for the Iranian people should be official
policy; and that military action should be anticipated if other measures
fail," the paper states.
In addition to preventing Iran from ever building a
nuclear weapon, the Trump administration must articulate a credible military
threat should Iran choose to launch full-scale attacks on Israel and U.S. forces.
"A credible hard power option exists,"
according to the plan. "That option does not consist of large invasion
forces or long, costly occupations."
Without a regime change, the United States will
continue face threats from Iranian forces stationed throughout the region,
including in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon.
"The probability the current Iranian theocracy
will stop its nuclear program willingly or even under significant pressure is
low," the plan states. "Absent a change in government within Iran,
America will face a choice between accepting a nuclear-armed Iran or acting to
destroy as much of this capability as possible."
U.S. officials must make efforts to publicly
differentiate between Iran's ruling regime and its people, a point that was also
emphasized by Trump in his statement about exiting the deal earlier this week.
"Any public discussion of these options, and
any messaging about the Iranian regime in general, should make a bright line
distinction between the theocratic regime along with its organs of oppression
and the general populace," according to the plan. "We must constantly
reinforce our support for removing the iron sandal from the necks of the people
to allow them the freedom they deserve."
Update 4:11 p.m.: This post has been updated to more accurately
reflect the nature of the plan.
Update 4:30 p.m.: This post has been updated with comment from the
NSC.
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/white-house-examining-plan-spark-regime-change-iran/
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