Iran, Foiled Attacks in
Europe, and Consequences for Nuclear Deal
Iran’s
alleged involvement in assassination plots in Denmark and France is undermining
Europe’s already fraught efforts to save the nuclear deal.
Opinion
By
Paul Knott Last updated Nov 23, 2018
The
EU's foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad
Zarif. Photo: AFP
Share
undermining
Europe’s already fraught efforts to salvage the nuclear deal with Iran.
The
Danish Foreign Minister Anders Samuelson said the
plot targeted three activists from the Arab Struggle Movement for the
Liberation of Ahwaz (ASMLA) who are exiled in Denmark. The ASMLA campaigns for
an independent state for Iran’s ethnic-Arab minority in the region of
Khuzestan, where they form the largest part of the population. Iran proscribes
ASMLA as a terrorist organization.
Although news of the
assassination plot was not revealed in public until early November, it was
uncovered by the Danish intelligence service just days after the September 22
attack by gunmen on a military parade in the Iranian city of Ahvaz. The Ahvaz
assault killed 29 people, including several children, and was initially claimed
by the ASMLA.
The
Danish case is not the first foiled plot in recent months that European security
agencies have attributed to the Iranians. In October, the French authorities
accused Iran of attempting to bomb a rally in Paris organized by the National
Council of Resistance of Iran. This group is more commonly known as the
Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK). It is also considered a terrorist organization by Iran
and was similarly classified by the E.U. until 2009 and the U.S. until 2012.
Several
arrests have been made in both cases, including that of Assadollah Assadi in connection with the Paris incident, an Iranian
diplomat based in Vienna.
Iran has, predictably,
denied the accusations against it. Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has even
accused Israel of being behind these incidents, calling them “false flags”
designed to disrupt Iran’s relations with Europe at a crucial time.
The timing of these
alleged plots is surprising. Following Donald J. Trump’s administration’s
withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, known officially as the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and its re-imposition of harsh sanctions
on Iran, the Europeans and Iranians are currently immersed in delicate
diplomacy to try to keep their participation in the agreement alive.Iran Needs
Europe
OPPOSITION figures in Europe during the early years after the 1979 Islamic
revolution, it has apparently ceased such attacks for over two decades,
following pressure from the Europeans. Why would Iran start them again now, at
a time when it badly needs European favor and support?
The relatively reformist
president of Iran, Hassan Rouhani, staked his presidency on the nuclear deal
and the economic benefits it promised for his people. Damaged relations with
Europe will do him no favors at all. But matters may not be so straightforward
for other rival elements within the regime, including some in the Ministry of
Intelligence and the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that are most likely to
have conducted the operations.
Hardliners within the
system, particularly the IRGC, opposed the nuclear deal all along. They argued
it would restrict Iran’s ability to defend itself against possible
U.S.-inspired regime change and regional rivals like Israel and Saudi Arabia.
These hardliners may see
stirring up the confrontation with Europe too as a further means to undermine
Rouhani and his reformist allies. It could also be used to rally patriotic
support for the Islamic Republic system, which has been struggling against mass
public protests for the last couple of years.
More murkily, powerful
figures within the IRGC and the regime profit mightily from using their power
and influence to control large chunks of the Iranian economy. It can be argued
that their wealth is enhanced by international sanctions, which reduce
competition and increase smuggling opportunities.
For both political and
selfish reasons, they would lose little sleep over the failure of Rouhani and
the Europeans’ attempts to save the nuclear deal.Can Europe Save the Nuclear
Deal?
On the other side of the
coin, it is difficult to see what any European government stands to gain by
falsely implicating Iran in these attacks. Europe remains keen to preserve the
nuclear deal. It sees the stopping of the Iranian nuclear weapons program it
produced as a great diplomatic triumph and vital for its security interests.
Throughout the nuclear
deal negotiations, all parties agreed to handle the issue in strict isolation
from other areas of dispute and disagreement. To do otherwise would have
rendered an already fiendishly difficult process impossible. Despite these
recent incidents, the Europeans will be keen to stick to that approach. They
are unlikely to link the alleged assassination plots directly to their efforts
to save the nuclear deal.
This does not mean that
they will not take any other action. Europe’s governments have a duty to deter
such attacks and defend their countries against them.
Denmark and France will
prosecute any individuals arrested and charged in connection with the thwarted
attacks. Their intelligence agencies appear confident that the evidence of
Iran’s involvement in directing these plots is compelling. This may lead to
unified European sanctions, such as personally targeted travel bans and asset
freezes on those implicated in Iran.
But while direct linkage
between these incidents and the efforts to preserve the nuclear deal will be
avoided, some overlap is probably inevitable.
The U.S.’ expulsion of
Iran from the SWIFT banking system for international business transactions is
already making it immensely difficult for European governments to keep the
nuclear deal alive. The Europeans are proposing to create an alternative
to SWIFT. But finding a country in Europe willing to risk the wrath of the Americans
by hosting it is proving difficult.
Iran’s alleged
involvement in these assassination plots will do nothing to encourage anyone to
step forward. As a result, the nuclear deal may collapse by default.
DISCLAIMER! The views and
opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect
the editorial position of The Globe Post.
Paul Knott Former
diplomat, turned writer on foreign affairs
مطالب مارا در وبلاک انجمن نجات ایران ودر توئیتربنام @bahareazady دنبال کنید
پیش بسوی قیام سراسری ، ما بر اندازیم# شهرهای ایران اعتصاب # تظاهرات#
سرنگونی # اتحادوهمبستگی مرگ_بر_دیکتاتور
هیچ نظری موجود نیست:
ارسال یک نظر