These Iranian Protests Are Different From 2009
Then,
the cause was a rift within the regime. Now, the people are demanding an end to
the regime.
Iranian anti-riot police prevent
university students from joining other protesters in Tehran, Iran, Dec. 30,
2017. Photo: Associated Press
By Maryam Rajavi
Jan. 8, 2018 7:35 p.m. ET
The protests in Iran send a cogent
message: The clerical regime stands on shaky ground, and the Iranian people are
unwavering in their quest to bring it down. Slogans against velayat-e
faqih, or absolute clerical rule, called
for a real republic and explicitly targeted the regime’s Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani. This dispels the myth, still harbored by
some governments, that Iranians distinguish between moderates and hard-liners
in Tehran. It also undercuts flawed arguments depicting a stable regime.
Millions of Iranians live in
poverty. Yet Tehran has spent upward of $100 billion on the massacre in Syria,
according to reports obtained by the National Council of Resistance of Iran.
The chants of “Death to Hezbollah” and “Leave Syria, think about us instead”
clearly demonstrate the people’s opposition to the regime’s belligerent
regional schemes.
The country’s official budget this
year allocates more than $26.8 billion to military and security affairs and the
export of terrorism. This is in addition to the $27.5 billion in military
spending from institutions controlled by Mr. Khamenei and the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps. The budget for health care is a mere $16.3 billion.
Weak and vulnerable, the regime spends such astronomical sums on regional
meddling as part of its strategy for survival.
Skeptics might point out that Iran
has faced protests before. What makes the current uprising different from the
2009 protests?
The 2009 protests were sparked by
rifts at the top of the regime. The current protests—which began in Iran’s
second-largest city of Mashhad and quickly spread across the country—were
motivated by rising prices, economic ruin, widespread corruption and resentment
toward the regime. This systemic economic mismanagement has its roots in the
political system, and it grows worse every day. That is why the demand for
regime change surfaced almost immediately. It seems to be the only conceivable
outcome.
Another major difference: The 2009
uprising was initially led by the upper middle class, with university students
at its core and Tehran as its center. The recent demonstrations span a much
broader swath of the population—the middle class, the underprivileged, workers,
students, women and young people. Nearly all of society has been represented on
the picket line.
Nor is the current uprising tied to
any of the regime’s internal factions or groupings. There are no illusions
about reform or gradual change from within. One of the popular slogans in
Tehran is “Hard-liners, reformers, the game is now over.” This is yet another
sign of the certainty of overthrow. As an Iranian expression goes: Maybe sooner
or later, but definitely certain.
The final differentiating factor is
the pace of events. In less than 24 hours, the protesters’ slogans shifted from
economic woes to rejection of the entire regime. The establishment has been
caught off guard and is scrambling to find a unified solution. The IRGC
declared victory over the protests on Sunday, but this reflects its hopes more
than the reality on the ground.
The regime has issued strong
warnings against joining the leading opposition group, Mujahedin-e Khalq. One
after another, low-ranking and senior officials, joined by the Friday prayer
leaders across the country who toe the regime’s line, blame the MEK for the
protests. The torrent of statements by regime officials reflect their panic at
the expansion of the nationwide uprising and the rising popularity of the MEK
and the National Council of Resistance of Iran.
The religious dictatorship has
resorted to extensive suppression to confront protesters. The IRCG has killed
at least 50 people and wounded hundreds. By the end of the ninth day of
protests, at least 3,000 had been arrested, according to our sources in the
country. Numerous reports indicate that security forces literally knock on
people’s doors and warn them against attending demonstrations. The net of
suppression has been cast as wide as possible.
In light of this brutal repression,
the international community must not remain silent. The United Nations Security
Council must adopt punitive measures against the regime’s crimes. This has long
been the demand of the Iranian people and opposition. We must not forget that
the perpetrators of the horrific 1988 massacre of 30,000 political prisoners
are still in power today, holding senior executive and judicial positions while
engaging in the murder of protesters in the streets.
Perhaps the final difference between
the 2009 protests and the recent uprising will be that the latter succeeds in
overthrowing the reviled theocracy in Iran. The people of Iran fervently hope
so.
Mrs. Rajavi is president-elect of the National
Council of Resistance of Iran, an Iranian opposition coalition based in Paris.
Appeared in the January 9, 2018,
print edition.
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